Unequal coal transportation volume and uneven distribution of temperature on the Daqin Line "not enough to eat"

The coal prices are hovering at a low level, and the coal market is experiencing a lack of supply and demand. The side effects of its continued downturn have finally extended to railway transportation. The National Development and Reform Commission recently disclosed that in June, the national railway coal shipment volume was 140 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. From January to June, a total of 910 million tons of coal were shipped, a decrease of 11.2%. From January to June, the national coal production was 1.63 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%.

On the one hand, the government has successively introduced policies and measures to resolve overcapacity in coal production, especially the closure of many illegal coal mines, which directly affects the production of raw coal. On the other hand, the decline in raw coal production is related to the decrease in market demand. In addition, the decrease in raw coal consumption for thermal power generation and coking production is also the main reason for the decline in coal production in the first half of the year, "said Wang Xingyan from the Raw Materials Industry Research Institute of CCID Research Institute.

At the same time as the significant reduction in production, coal companies are paying more attention to logistics costs, and the comprehensive logistics costs determine customers' choices of transportation channels. In the second half of last year, after the opening of the Zhunchi Line, coal from western Inner Mongolia was discharged through the "Zhunchi Line Shuohuang Line Huanghua Port" channel, with a lower transportation cost of 15-17 yuan/ton compared to the "Dazhun Line Daqin Line Qinhuangdao Port" channel. Due to factors such as short railway transportation distance and low freight costs, many high-quality coal from western Inner Mongolia has been diverted from the Daqin Line to the Shuohuang Line, resulting in a rapid increase in transportation volume on the Shuohuang Line and a significant decrease in transportation volume on the Daqin Line.

Originally, the Daqin Line was operating at overload, but now it should be said that there is still some surplus capacity, "a staff member from Qinhuangdao Port told the Huaxia Times reporter.

In market competition, the shipping role and position of the "Zhunchi Line Shuohuang Line Huanghua Port" have significantly improved, and the focus of coal shipping has gradually shifted from the "front coal transportation channel" Daqin Line to the "second coal transportation channel" Shuohuang Line. As a result, the coal transportation volume of Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, and Guotou Jingtang Port decreased significantly by 55 million tons year-on-year. In the first half of this year, Qinhuangdao Port completed a coal throughput of 75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7 million tons. However, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua Port and Tianjin Port has increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua Port increased significantly by 28 million.

However, with the arrival of the summer electricity peak, starting from June, the peak of coal consumption has arrived, and downstream demand has increased. The enthusiasm of users to pull coal has also correspondingly increased, driving coastal coal transportation to gradually become busy. The coal transportation volume of northern ports may exceed that of the first half of the year.

In the past two months, the main coal producing enterprises are bound to increase their sales and shipping volume, and railway and port transportation will show significant improvement. The coastal coal market will experience a long-awaited boom in supply and demand. However, September and October belong to the off-season for coal consumption. Although civilian electricity has weakened, the economy continues to stabilize, and coal demand will not show a significant decline. It is expected that the quantity of coal transported from north to south will slightly decrease compared to the same period throughout the year. In the second half of the year, the economy will continue to remain stable, and civilian electricity will increase, driving the market to improve, and coal prices will continue to rise. By the end of the year, it is expected that the transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal power coal ports will exceed 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, "said Wang Yun, an analyst at Qinh.